Chance Beginnings

Overview

In this first lesson of the unit, students are introduced to the idea of chance and probability using everyday situations and simple experiments with coins and dice. They learn to describe outcomes and discuss whether outcomes are likely or unlikely.

Learning intentions

• Students will understand that outcomes of chance events are not certain.
• Students will identify possible outcomes when using a coin or a dice.
• Students will make simple predictions (likely/unlikely) based on observed results.
• Students will record results and begin to notice patterns in repeats.

Success criteria

• I can name the possible outcomes of a coin toss and a die roll.
• I can describe a chance event as “chance” (not certain) and use words like likely or unlikely.
• I can record results in a table and count how many times each outcome happens.
• I can compare my results to my prediction in a clear sentence.

Curriculum links

• Chance and probability: describing outcomes as likely/unlikely and relating them to experiments
• Collecting, organising, and interpreting data from simple experiments
• Using mathematics to represent outcomes (lists, tally marks, simple tables) and communicate reasoning

Lesson structure (45 minutes)

1. 0–5 min — Engage with an everyday chance prompt Teacher shows two situations: “Will it rain at recess?” and “Which shoe is on the left foot?” Students sort into “certain” and “chance” using a quick thumb vote and explain one reason.

2. 5–10 min — Teach the key idea of chance Teacher models: “A coin flip has chance outcomes. We can’t know exactly what will happen, but we can list what could happen.” Students repeat the phrase: “Chance means not certain.”

3. 10–16 min — Explore outcomes: coin In pairs, students list possible outcomes for tossing a coin: heads or tails. Teacher collects ideas and confirms. Students then do 5 coin tosses as a class (or in small groups if equipment allows), recording results on a shared class chart.

4. 16–24 min — Explore outcomes: dice Students discuss possible outcomes for rolling a die (1 to 6). Teacher checks understanding by asking: “What outcomes could happen?” Students work in groups of 3–4 to roll a die 6 times and record outcomes using tally marks in a table with columns 1–6.

5. 24–32 min — Predict, then compare (very structured) Teacher demonstrates with one question before the next set of rolls:

• “Which number is likely: 1 or 6?” (or “Which is more likely: rolling an even or odd number?”) Students make a prediction using likely/unlikely and one sentence reason (e.g., “They look the same because each face is visible”). Groups then roll 6 more times and tally again.

6. 32–39 min — Class discussion: what did we notice? Students share one observation: for example, “We didn’t get the exact same result every time” or “One outcome happened more/less often.” Teacher prompts comparison to predictions: “Did your prediction match the results? Why might it differ?”

7. 39–45 min — Quick formative check and exit ticket Students complete an exit ticket (on scrap paper or worksheet):

• List the possible outcomes for a coin toss (2 outcomes).
• Predict whether rolling an even number is likely or unlikely, then tick one.
• Write one sentence: “Chance is…” using their own words.

Resources

• Coins (1 per group or enough for pairs to share)
• Dice (1 per group or shared dice set)
• Recording sheets with a simple table for coin results and a tally table for dice outcomes (1–6)
• Class chart paper or interactive board template for tallying outcomes
• Exit ticket slips or half-page worksheet
• Teacher timer and a visible agenda (chance, outcomes, record, compare)
• Rulers/markers for tallying if needed
• Safety and equipment routine reminder (no throwing dice/coins)

Assessment

• Observation during pair/group work: students correctly identify and record possible outcomes.
• Exit ticket: checks understanding of “chance” (not certain), possible outcomes, and use of likely/unlikely.
• Teacher questioning: compares predictions to results using mathematical language.

Differentiation

• Support: Provide sentence starters (“Possible outcomes are…”, “I think it is likely/unlikely because…”, “We found that…”). Offer a partially completed tally table and model counting totals.
• Support: For students needing more structure, use fewer trials (e.g., 4 rolls) and focus on identifying outcomes and one simple comparison.
• Extension: Challenge students to run an additional short set (e.g., 10 rolls) and discuss which outcomes appeared more/less often and whether the class results are consistent.
• EAL/SEN: Use visual prompts for heads/tails, and colour-code the die faces on the table. Encourage responses with oral rehearsing before writing. Provide word banks for likely/unlikely and chance.