Chance Project Design

Overview

In this lesson (8 of 9), students design a short chance investigation project. They choose a chance experiment, write a clear prediction, plan fair testing, and decide how they will collect and represent data.

Learning intentions

• Students will plan a chance experiment that produces repeated outcomes.
• Students will make a sensible prediction based on prior learning about chance.
• Students will select a method for fair testing and record outcomes accurately.
• Students will plan simple data displays and describe how they will analyse results.

Success criteria

• I can state what will happen in my chance experiment and explain my prediction.
• I can design a method that repeats trials and keeps conditions the same.
• I can choose an appropriate way to record outcomes and count results.
• I can explain how I will compare results to my prediction using words and data.

Curriculum links

• Developing understanding of chance as the likelihood of outcomes from repeated experiments and identifying patterns in results.
• Using simple probability language (possible, unlikely, likely, as likely as) and recognising that outcomes vary across trials.
• Collecting, organising, and representing data from chance experiments using appropriate tables and graphs.
• Communicating mathematical reasoning using explanations supported by data.

Lesson structure (45 minutes)

1. (5 min) Warm-up: Quick chance chat Students discuss: “What makes a test fair?” and “What does ‘repeat’ help us understand?” Share 1–2 examples (e.g., rolling a die, flipping a coin, spinning a spinner).

2. (7 min) Model: Turning ideas into a project plan Teacher demonstrates a simple project frame: experiment choice, prediction, number of trials (e.g., 30–50), how outcomes will be recorded, and what representation will be used (tally table and simple bar chart). Emphasise keeping conditions the same.

3. (25 min) Student task: Design and write their plan In pairs or small groups, students complete a project design page for their chosen experiment.

• Choose the chance experiment and outcomes (e.g., “spinner: A, B, C”; “coin: heads/tails”).
• Write a hypothesis/prediction using likelihood words (e.g., “I think A will be likely because…”).
• Plan fair testing: repeat trials, avoid changing the method, and define what counts as each outcome.
• Decide data collection: a tally chart/table with columns for each outcome and a plan for counting totals.
• Plan analysis: how they will compare observed counts to their prediction using sentences.

Teacher circulates, prompts for clarity (“How will you repeat?” “What will you record each time?” “How will you show results?”) and checks that students have enough trials planned.

4. (5 min) Share: Two-minute peer feedback Pairs swap project plans with another pair. Feedback uses two prompts: “One thing you will do clearly” and “One question to help improve fairness or recording.”

5. (3 min) Exit ticket: Teacher check Students write one sentence: their prediction (with likelihood language) and one sentence: what they will do to ensure fair testing (e.g., number of repeats, same method each trial).

Resources

• Project design template (experiment, outcomes, prediction, number of trials, method, recording table, planned representation, analysis sentence starter)
• Dice and coin (or paper spinners if used in the unit)
• Spinner templates and counters (optional for design choices)
• Sample tally table and simple bar chart example
• Coloured pencils/markers for representing categories
• Recording sheet for quick practice (teacher model)
• Student notebooks or maths journals
• Timer for pair work and sharing
• Display board with sentence starters:
• “I predict that… will be likely because…”
• “I will repeat the trial … times and keep the rules the same.”
• “I will record outcomes in a table and then make a bar chart.”

Assessment

• Formative: teacher observation during design work (fair testing, clarity of outcomes, recording method).
• Exit ticket checks for appropriate prediction wording and a specific fair-testing plan.
• Peer feedback notes to identify common misconceptions (e.g., changing the method mid-trial, unclear outcome categories).

Differentiation

• Support: provide sentence starters and a partially completed template (fixed trial number, pre-made outcome table). Offer a small choice set of experiments to reduce decision load.
• Support: pre-teach “same rules each time” with a quick demonstration and have students rehearse one trial and recording step.
• Extension: ask students to justify their prediction with an additional reason (e.g., “If the spinner is uneven, outcomes with larger sections are more likely”). Encourage a plan to compare results across two different experiments if time allows.
• EAL/SEN: allow oral planning before writing; provide visual examples of tally tables and bar charts; use clear outcome labels and simplified language for likelihood (likely/unlikely).