Chance tools today

Overview

In this lesson students begin chance experiments using spinners and playing cards. They will create a spinner, predict outcomes, and then test their predictions to compare what they expected with what actually happens.

Learning intentions

• Students will describe likely outcomes using everyday language (more likely/less likely, certain/impossible).
• Students will make simple predictions about what might happen in a chance experiment.
• Students will record results from a spinner or card draw and look for patterns.
• Students will explain whether outcomes match their predictions and why it might differ.

Success criteria

• I can predict what is more likely when a spinner has sections of different sizes or counts.
• I can run a chance experiment multiple times and record results clearly.
• I can compare my predicted results with my actual results using simple reasons.
• I can use language like certain, impossible, more likely, and less likely appropriately.

Curriculum links

• Chance and data: using everyday and mathematical language to describe likelihood and outcomes.
• Collect, represent and interpret data: making simple tables/graphs from results.
• Using measurements and models appropriately: constructing a spinner model to represent parts of the whole.
• Reasoning: explaining predictions and comparing them with experimental results.

Lesson structure (45 minutes)

1. 5 min – Launch with “What might happen?” Show a simple real-life scenario (e.g., “What’s more likely—landing on heads or tails?” using a coin) and prompt responses using certain/impossible/more likely/less likely. Clarify that chance outcomes can’t be guaranteed.

2. 8 min – Introduce spinners and cards Demonstrate a prepared spinner with unequal sections (e.g., 2 red, 1 blue, 1 green) and a small deck of cards (or card faces). Discuss how each section/each card represents an outcome. Ask: “If we spin 10 times, which result do you think will happen most often?”

3. 10 min – Plan predictions Students work in pairs. They choose a spinner design (template provided): 4, 6, or 8 equal-sized sections, but with at least two colours/outcomes used so that likelihood can differ. Each group writes:

• their predicted most likely outcome and least likely outcome
• a simple reason using the number of sections (e.g., “more sections mean more likely”) If using cards, groups decide what outcome each card face represents (e.g., hearts = “A”, spades = “B”).

4. 12 min – Build and test Students build their spinner (cut, assemble, add a pointer) and test it. They spin 10 times, recording results in a table (Outcome | Tally | Total). If a group finishes early, they repeat another 10 spins to strengthen comparisons.

• Quick teacher check: ensure spinners are balanced enough to spin fairly, and students record each spin immediately.

5. 7 min – Compare predictions with results Students share one group result. Guide them to answer:

• “Did the most likely outcome happen most often?”
• “Did anything surprising happen?” Reinforce that results may not perfectly match predictions, because chance experiments vary.

6. 3 min – Whole-class reflection Exit prompt on board: “One sentence: My prediction was… My result showed… The reason is…” Collect brief answers from several students.

Resources

• Spinner templates with 4/6/8 equal sections (paper or card), scissors, glue or tape
• Paper fasteners/brads for spinner rotation and a sturdy pointer
• Coloured pencils/markers
• Mini recording sheets with a results table for 10 spins
• Deck of playing cards with faces kept consistent (or face cards removed if preferred)
• Risk-reduction: classroom-safe spinner stand or controlled spinning area
• Example finished spinner and an example completed tally table
• Timer for testing rounds
• Visual language prompts: certain, impossible, more likely, less likely

Assessment

• Observation during building and recording: students use an organised table and record outcomes accurately.
• Evidence of prediction quality: students can state a most likely/least likely outcome with a reason tied to section or card counts.
• Reflection statements: students compare predicted expectations with observed results using likelihood language.

Differentiation

• Support: provide spinner designs with pre-counted section numbers (e.g., 6 sections total with 4 of one colour) and sentence starters for predictions (“I think … because there are … sections”).
• Support: offer a card-choice option where outcomes are represented by only two card types to reduce cognitive load.
• Extension: students design a spinner where two outcomes are equally likely and must justify why, then test to see if results are close over 20 spins.
• EAL/SEN: use pictorial recording (colour tally indicators), pair with a supportive peer, and allow oral responses for the final reflection before writing.