Chance Words

Overview

Today students use everyday language (like possible, maybe, unlikely, certain) to describe and compare simple chance events in familiar contexts. They will practise saying what could happen and whether it is likely or not.

Learning intentions

• WALT use everyday language to describe chances.
• Students will identify chance events (what could happen) and choose suitable everyday words.
• Students will describe what they think will happen using complete, clear sentences.

Success criteria

• I can name an everyday chance word that fits an event.
• I can tell what might happen using “It could…”, “It might…”, “It is unlikely…”, or “It is certain…”.
• I can explain my choice by referring to what happened in an example (e.g., “We saw this most times…”).
• I can listen to others and agree or disagree respectfully.

Curriculum links

• Counting and using chance language in everyday situations.
• Developing simple reasoning about events that may or may not happen.
• Communicating mathematical ideas using everyday explanations and appropriate language.

Lesson structure (30 minutes)

1. 0–3 min | Morning link + WALT

• Gather students and review the idea of “chance”: some events happen, some don’t.
• Say the WALT and quickly model two examples: “I could see a red counter” and “I will see a counter” (certain).

2. 3–8 min | Chance words display

• Show a simple classroom chance words chart with pictures (possible/maybe, unlikely/not likely, certain, impossible if you already use it).
• Teacher does a quick “thumbs” check: read an event sentence, students show with thumbs up/down and then repeat one sentence frame aloud.

3. 8–18 min | Hands-on chance events (station-style)

• In small groups, students rotate through 3 short teacher-prepared activities (about 3 minutes each):
• Bag draw: Students draw 1 counter from a bag (e.g., 3 red, 1 blue). They record a yes/no tally for “red”.
• Spinner: Students spin a simple spinner with 2–3 colours. They decide and record whether “red” is possible or unlikely and write one sentence.
• Coin flip (if used in your class): Students flip a coin and discuss chance words for “heads” (e.g., possible, maybe).
• Focus on language: students must say “It could/might…” and one reason (“We got it X times out of Y” or “There are more red counters”).

4. 18–24 min | Whole-class discussion: choosing the right word

• Use one class-collected result from the bag/spinner to compare:
• “After 10 draws, did red happen most of the time?”
• Prompt: “Which everyday word best matches red: possible or unlikely?”
• Students share answers using sentence starters and listen for evidence from the results.

5. 24–29 min | Individual check (quick written/oral)

• Give each student a simple sheet or mini-card with 3 events:
• “Drawing from this bag: red is ___.”
• “Spinning this spinner: blue is ___.”
• “Picking a counter without looking: green is ___.”
• Students write or dictate one chance word for each and one sentence frame to match.

6. 29–30 min | Wrap-up

• Exit prompt: “Say one chance word and one event from today.”
• Collect sheets/cards.

Resources

• Chance words picture chart (possible/maybe, unlikely, certain, and any others you use).
• 3 sets of simple chance tools:
• Bags with counters (different colour mixes),
• Small spinners with 2–3 sections,
• Coins (optional depending on your class routine).
• Recording mats with tally marks (teacher-prepared).
• Student mini-cards or worksheets with sentence starters.
• Coloured counters and/or sticky notes for recording.
• Timer for rotations.
• Visual sentence frames on the board:
• “It could…”
• “It might…”
• “It is unlikely…”
• “It is certain…”

Assessment

• Teacher observation during station rotations: listen for correct use of everyday chance language and evidence from results.
• Review of individual check: can the student match a chance word to each event and produce a correct sentence frame?
• Oral conferencing with a few students (especially EALD and neurodivergent learners) to confirm understanding.

Differentiation

• Use visuals: pictures on the chance words chart and colour-coded events to support language development and reduce cognitive load.
• Sentence starters for all students; reduce writing demands by allowing oral responses or drawing plus a single word.
• For neurodivergent learners: predictable routine with time warnings, clear role cards in groups (drawer/spinner/tally-sayer), and a quieter space for the individual check.
• EALD support: pre-teach the key chance words with gestures, model full sentences, and pair students strategically (peer who can help repeat the sentence frame).
• Support: limit events to two outcomes (e.g., red vs not red) where needed and provide more time in stations.
• Extension (advanced learners): after collecting results, students draft a simple statistical picture graph (one column of tally counts) for an event (e.g., number of red draws out of 10) and write a comparison sentence like “Red happened more often than blue.”