Predicting Outcomes

Overview

Lesson 3 of 3 focuses on predicting how strategy changes will affect scoring or success, then evaluating outcomes during gameplay. Students use evidence from curated video examples and their own matches to justify predictions—building toward a team showcase of the best overall strategy.

Learning intentions

• Students will WALT predict the effectiveness of movement strategies and explain why outcomes may differ from expectations.
• Students will WALT evaluate how strategy changes influence scoring opportunities and game results.
• Students will WALT use evidence from gameplay and video to justify judgments, including unexpected outcomes.

Success criteria

• I can predict at least one likely outcome when our team changes a strategy mid-game.
• I can explain why that outcome might happen (space, effort, time, objects/people, or movement flow).
• I can compare my prediction to what actually happened and give a reason for any unexpected result.
• I can contribute to a team decision about what strategy to use next and why.

Curriculum links

• AC9HP8M02: design and demonstrate how movement strategies can be manipulated to improve movement outcomes (predicting and reflecting on strategy impact).
• AC9HP8M07: propose and evaluate movement strategies and skills that would be most effective in different movement situations (evaluation during gameplay and video).
• AC9HP8M03: demonstrate and explain how movement concepts related to effort, space, time, objects and people can be manipulated to improve movement outcomes (link predictions to movement concepts).
• AC9HP8M01: analyse, refine and transfer movement skills in a variety of movement situations (use feedback/evidence to refine tactical choices).

Lesson structure (45 minutes)

1. 0–5 min · Hook pop quiz. Teacher reads 5 quick scenarios and students answer on paper (no devices) with one sentence: “What outcome is likely and why?” Students complete the mini quiz individually, then hold answers ready for checking.

2. 5–10 min · Quick model: predict → test → evaluate. Teacher shows one simple strategy change (e.g., “press earlier” or “switch marking responsibilities”), then models a prediction and one possible unexpected outcome. Students listen and identify: (a) predicted outcome, (b) strategy change, (c) reason linked to movement concepts.

3. 10–18 min · Video evidence: success vs failure. Teacher plays 2 short curated clips: one showing a tactical success, one showing a tactical failure. Students complete a Video T-Chart: “What changed?” and “What outcome happened?” plus one predicted reason.

4. 18–30 min · Gameplay: Strategy Sprint 1. Teacher sets a small-sided game (invasion/possession focus) and assigns each team one strategy rule for the sprint (e.g., “attack space wide first” or “counter quickly after turnover”). Students play for 6 minutes, then pause for a 2-minute “coach call” where they predict what will happen if they adjust the strategy for the next sprint (students agree on one adjustment).

5. 30–40 min · Gameplay: Strategy Sprint 2 (test predictions). Teacher introduces the strategy-change instruction for Sprint 2 (each team chooses from two options on a cue card: change space usage, change timing of pressure, or change support movement). Students play again while one player records: prediction, what actually happened, and a reason for any mismatch.

6. 40–45 min · Strategies Showcase + exit PMI. Teams present one “best strategy” using: prediction made (from earlier), outcome observed, and why the strategy worked (or didn’t). Students complete a PMI chart (Plus/Minus/Interesting) on paper or via a short class Google Form, focusing on how they will use predictions to improve future movement.

Resources

• Pop quiz worksheet (5 scenario prompts)
• Video T-Chart printable or Google Doc
• Game area with cones/markers for boundaries and zones
• Strategy cue cards (options for mid-game changes)
• Team score sheet or quick tally sheet for outcomes (e.g., goals/turnovers/time in possession)
• PMI chart template (paper or Google Forms)
• First-aid kit and whistle
• Timer/stopwatch
• Curated video clips (downloaded/offline if needed)

Assessment

• Formative: teacher listens for clear prediction reasoning during the pop quiz and coach call (check that reasons link to movement concepts).
• Formative: collect Video T-Charts to see if students identify strategy changes and accurate outcomes.
• Formative: review one strategy record per team (prediction vs actual vs reason).
• Exit ticket: PMI chart entries indicate the accuracy and depth of evaluation (especially “Minus” and “Interesting”).

Differentiation

• Support: pair students into “Predictor + Evidence Finder” roles; provide sentence starters: “I predict… because…”, “It surprised me when…”, “A likely reason is…”
• Support: allow the partner group to focus on only one movement concept (e.g., space or timing) when explaining outcomes.
• Extension (advanced learners):
• Conduct a rapid class survey during/after the game: “Which strategy change most improved outcomes?” and “Why do you think so?”
• Summarise findings in a 4–6 sentence mini-report: claim, evidence from at least one team, and one implication for future strategies.
• Extension (video thinkers): advanced learners compare clips using a “similarity + difference” statement (what was the same about the strategy base, and what changed in execution).

Conclusion

This final lesson consolidates the unit’s focus by making strategy evaluation explicit: students predict outcomes, test them in gameplay, and justify results using evidence from both matches and video. The Strategies Showcase and PMI reflection help transfer learning to future physical activity contexts by strengthening students’ ability to choose, predict, and evaluate movement strategies.