Independent or Dependent? Probability Detectives
Year 4 Mathematics Exploring chance events and probability
Learning Intention
I can identify events as independent or dependent I can explain how one event affects or doesn't affect another I can use probability language: certain, impossible, likely, unlikely
Success Criteria
I can give examples of independent events I can give examples of dependent events I can explain WHY events are independent or dependent I can use chance language correctly
Detective Warm-Up Question
If I flip a coin and get heads... What are the chances the next flip will be tails? Think-Pair-Share your answer!
What Are Independent Events?
Independent events don't affect each other The first event doesn't change the second event Example: Flipping a coin twice The coin doesn't remember what happened before!
What Are Dependent Events?
Dependent events DO affect each other The first event changes what happens next Example: Jumping and landing If you jump up, you will definitely land down!
Independent vs Dependent
{"left":"Flipping a coin twice\nRolling dice twice\nPicking cards (with replacement)\nDrawing weather on different days","right":"Jumping then landing\nRain then wet ground\nEating then feeling full\nPicking cards (without replacement)"}
Detective Challenge: Does It Change?
I'll say two events Move LEFT if dependent (one affects the other) Move RIGHT if independent (don't affect each other) Be ready to explain WHY!
Check for Understanding
On your whiteboard, write I or D: I flip a coin 5 times and get 5 heads What about the 6th flip? Is it more likely to be tails? Why or why not?
Real-Life Detective Work
Weather tomorrow and weather today Your breakfast and your friend's breakfast Rolling a dice and the number you get Turning on a light and the room getting brighter
Mini Experiment
Let's test the coin! I'll flip it 5 times Record what happens Does the coin 'remember' previous flips?
Assessment Question
Sarah says: 'I rolled three 1s in a row, so my next roll will definitely NOT be a 1' Is Sarah correct? Explain your thinking. Use the words 'independent' or 'dependent' in your answer.
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