Predictions: Fair, Misleading, or Certain?
Open this deck in Kuraplan
Sign in to view all 25 slides, customise, present or download.
Slide preview
First 12 of 25 slides
Predictions: Fair, Misleading, or Certain?
What if we misunderstood predictions? Year 8 Mathematics Exploring probability, chance, and certainty
Learning Intentions
Understand how probability is used to make predictions Classify events from impossible to certain Identify when predictions are based on data vs language tricks Explain why probability doesn't guarantee outcomes
Key Vocabulary
Probability - the likelihood of an event occurring Chance - another word for probability Likely - has a good probability of happening Unlikely - has a low probability of happening Certain - will definitely happen (100% probability) Impossible - will never happen (0% probability)
Think About It...
What's the difference between these statements? 'It will probably rain tomorrow' 'There's a 70% chance of rain tomorrow' Which one gives you more useful information?
The Probability Scale
0% = Impossible (will never happen) 25% = Unlikely (probably won't happen) 50% = Even chance (could go either way) 75% = Likely (probably will happen) 100% = Certain (will definitely happen)
Probability Card Sort
Work in pairs to sort these events Place each card on the probability scale Impossible | Unlikely | Even Chance | Likely | Certain Be ready to justify your choices!
Let's Check Some Answers
Rolling a 6 on a dice = 1/6 or about 17% Flipping heads on a coin = 1/2 or 50% Drawing a red card from a deck = 26/52 or 50% Your birthday falling on a weekend = 2/7 or about 29%
Fair vs Misleading Predictions
{"left":"Based on data and evidence\nUses specific numbers or percentages\nAcknowledges uncertainty\nCan be tested and verified","right":"Uses vague language\nMakes absolute claims without evidence\nIgnores contradictory information\nCannot be tested"}
Spot the Problem
'Our team always wins at home' What makes this prediction misleading? How could we make it more fair and accurate?
Language Tricks in Predictions
'Studies show...' (which studies? how many people?) 'Most people believe...' (what percentage exactly?) 'Experts say...' (which experts? what are their qualifications?) 'It's proven that...' (where's the proof? peer-reviewed?)
Prediction Detective
Read the news headlines provided Identify: Is this prediction fair or misleading? Circle the language that gives it away Rewrite misleading predictions to make them fair
Why Probability Doesn't Guarantee Outcomes
A 90% chance of rain means it might not rain Probability describes likelihood, not certainty Even unlikely events can happen That's why we need the full scale from 0-100%