Exploring Chance Experiments

Overview

Students investigate chance through coin flips, dice rolls, spinners and familiar everyday events. They make predictions, collect and compare results, and communicate conclusions using probability language.

Learning intentions

• WALT use probability words to describe chance.
• WALT make predictions about the outcomes of simple experiments.
• WALT conduct a fair chance experiment and record results.
• WALT compare predictions with results using evidence.

Success criteria

• I can explain the meaning of certain, likely, possible, unlikely and impossible.
• I can predict and record outcomes from a chance experiment.
• I can use tallies, totals, fractions or comparisons to describe results.
• I can explain whether my results support my prediction.

Curriculum links

• Statistical investigation: posing questions, collecting data, recording results and making statements from data.
• Chance and probability: describing the likelihood of everyday events and outcomes of simple experiments.
• Mathematical communication: using probability vocabulary, tables and informal comparisons.
• Mathematical and statistical reasoning: making predictions, looking for patterns and explaining conclusions.
• Key competencies: thinking; managing self; participating and contributing; using language, symbols and texts.

Lesson structure (45 minutes)

1. 0–7 min – Introduce chance vocabulary

Display a coin, die and spinner. Open with the chance hook and vocabulary slides and ask: “Can we ever know exactly what will happen?” Discuss everyday examples, such as rain tomorrow, rolling a six, or the Sun rising. Introduce and order: impossible, unlikely, possible, likely and certain. Students briefly justify where they would place each event.

2. 7–12 min – Model a fair experiment

Demonstrate a coin-flipping investigation. Ask students to predict the number of heads in 10 flips, then model flipping, tallying and counting results. Emphasise fair testing: the same coin, clear outcomes, consistent recording and enough trials. Refer to the Chance Vocabulary Cards as students explain the terms.

3. 12–27 min – Group investigations

Place students in groups of four, with roles such as equipment manager, flipper/roller, recorder and reporter. Give each group coins, dice or a two- or four-section spinner. Distribute the differentiated chance investigation worksheet and, where appropriate, the Dice/coin Experiment Recording Tables for organised tallying.

• Red group: completes the supported section with visual prompts, matching chance words to familiar events, and records simple outcomes.
• Green group: conducts repeated trials, records tallies and identifies which outcomes were most and least likely.
• Blue group: independently writes a question, predicts outcomes, conducts the experiment and explains results using fractions or comparisons such as “heads occurred 6 out of 10 times”.

Circulate, question students about fairness and encourage complete mathematical sentences.

4. 27–34 min – Everyday chance sort

Pause the investigations and show event examples on the activity instruction and event slides. Pairs classify events as impossible, unlikely, possible, likely or certain, then select one event to defend. Invite students to notice that “possible” means an event can happen, not that it must happen.

5. 34–41 min – Compare predictions and results

Groups prepare a short report: their question, prediction, number of trials, results and one conclusion. Each reporter shares evidence using a sentence frame: “We predicted ___ because ___. We observed ___. This means ___.” Discuss why results may not exactly match predictions and how more trials could improve confidence.

6. 41–45 min – Reflect and assess

Use the plenary and reflection slide. Students individually complete the final section of the differentiated chance investigation worksheet: one chance word, one result from their experiment and whether the evidence supported their prediction. Collect sheets as an exit check and recap that probability describes how likely outcomes are, while experiments provide evidence.

Resources

• the chance investigation slide deck
• the differentiated chance investigation worksheet
• the Chance Vocabulary Cards
• the Dice/coin Experiment Recording Tables
• Coins, one per group or pair
• Six-sided dice
• Two- or four-section spinners
• Pencils, erasers and rulers
• Whiteboard and markers
• Small containers or trays for equipment

Assessment

• Listen for accurate use of impossible, unlikely, possible, likely and certain during discussion and sorting.
• Observe whether students make a prediction, conduct repeated trials and record outcomes accurately.
• Review worksheets and group reports for evidence-based conclusions, appropriate comparisons and awareness that experimental results can vary.

Differentiation

• Red group: work near the teacher with the visual vocabulary cards, fewer trials if needed, pre-drawn tally tables and sentence frames such as “I think ___ is likely.”
• Green group: use the recording table independently and be prompted to compare the most and least frequent outcomes.
• Blue group: choose their own investigation, calculate outcome fractions or compare two experiments, then explain whether more trials might change the result.
• EAL and students requiring additional support: pair with a supportive peer, rehearse vocabulary orally, use gestures or pictures, and provide equipment roles that allow active participation. Extend confident speakers by asking them to justify whether an outcome is theoretically or experimentally likely.