Introduction to Probability

Overview

This is the first lesson in a 10-lesson unit titled Understanding Probability Concepts designed for Year 6 students in New Zealand. It aligns closely with the New Zealand Curriculum's mathematics strand for statistics and probability, particularly focusing on the phase 2 curriculum expectations for Year 6. The lesson introduces students to the fundamental ideas of probability, helping them understand what probability means and identify chance-based situations.

Learning Objectives (WALT - We Are Learning To)

Understand and define the concept of probability.
Identify and describe everyday situations that involve chance.
Recognise and use vocabulary related to probability (e.g., impossible, unlikely, possible, likely, certain).
Describe outcomes of chance events using simple data representation.

Success Criteria

By the end of the lesson, students will be able to:

Give a simple definition of probability.
Identify examples of chances and chance-based situations in daily life.
Use probability words to explain the likelihood of events.
Create simple visual representations (lists or pictures) showing possible outcomes from a chance event.

Curriculum Alignment

Strand: Statistics and Probability Sub-strand: Probability and chance Level: Phase 2, Year 6

Curriculum expectations include:

Engaging in chance-based investigations by:
Posing investigative questions about chance situations.
Anticipating possible and impossible outcomes.
Collecting and recording data about chance events.
Creating simple visual representations (lists, pictures, graphs).
Using probability vocabulary appropriately.
Reflecting on anticipated outcomes and describing variations.
Developing statistical literacy by agreeing or disagreeing with statements about chance-based situations using evidence.
Investigating probability by playing games of chance with physical objects (dice, coins, spinners).

Reference to the New Zealand Curriculum documents confirms these points as central to Year 6 objectives in probability concepts.

Resources Needed

Dice, coins, spinners, or cards for chance-based activities.
Whiteboard and markers.
Visual aids: probability word cards ("Impossible," "Unlikely," "Possible," "Likely," "Certain").
Chart paper or digital projector for group data visualisation.
Dyslexia-friendly printed sheets with clear headings and simple text summarising probability vocabulary.
Clipboards and recording sheets for students.

Lesson Structure (45 minutes)

Time	Activity	Purpose/Notes
0-5 mins	Introduction & WALT presentation	Present the WALT and success criteria on the board. Use simple language and show visual symbols for each criterion.
5-15 mins	Class discussion: What is Probability?	Use a story or real-life example (e.g., "What is the chance it will rain today?"). Explain probability as "how likely something is to happen." Introduce vocabulary using visual cards and simple explanations.
15-25 mins	Hands-on activity: Games of Chance	Students play simple games (e.g., rolling dice, coin toss). In pairs, identify and list possible outcomes. Use tally marks on clipboards to record occurrences. Support with visual templates.
25-35 mins	Data Visualisation & Vocabulary Matching	Gather as a class to create a simple frequency chart or picture graph of their outcomes. Match outcomes with probability words to describe likelihoods seen (e.g., “rolling a 6 is unlikely”).
35-40 mins	Discussion and Reflection	Discuss why some outcomes happened more than others. Encourage students to use new vocabulary to describe results. Ask questions: "Was it certain to get a number less than 7?"
40-45 mins	Plenary & Exit Slip	Students write a sentence defining probability and give an example of a chance situation. Collect for formative assessment. Provide dyslexia-friendly sentence starters if needed.

Differentiation

Support for diverse learners:
Use concrete, hands-on materials to illustrate abstract ideas.
Provide visual word cards and simple vocabulary explanations.
Pair students strategically for peer support.
Use clear, dyslexia-friendly fonts and layouts for written materials.
Oral scaffolding and repetition.
Challenge for advanced learners:
Encourage researching different games involving chance at home and preparing a short explanation for the next lesson.
Ask them to think about outcomes that are not equally likely and share these ideas with the class.

Assessment for Learning

Observe group discussions and note use of probability vocabulary.
Collect students' exit slips to assess understanding of basic probability concepts.
Monitor students' ability to list outcomes and describe likelihoods during activities.

Additional Teaching Notes

Emphasise that probability is about chance and likelihood, not certain prediction.
Use familiar contexts like weather, sport, or simple classroom games to make concepts relatable.
Use formative questions that encourage critical thinking about chance, e.g., "Why do some numbers come up more often?"
Keep language accessible and repeat key vocabulary frequently.

This lesson plan builds a solid foundation for students’ understanding of probability aligned with the New Zealand Curriculum and includes practical activities, clear success criteria, and supports for diverse learners, including dyslexia-friendly material. It encourages curiosity and reflection to prepare students for deeper probability concepts in subsequent lessons.

If you would like, I can also provide lesson plans for subsequent lessons in this unit.

Teaching Instructions