Toss, Spin, Predict!

Year 4–5 Mathematics – Probability (Phase 2, New Zealand Curriculum)

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Curriculum Focus:

Strand: Statistics
Achievement Objective (Level 2):
Investigate simple situations that involve elements of chance by comparing experimental results with expectations from models of all the outcomes.

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WALT:

We Are Learning To:
Use everyday objects to investigate probability, make predictions, and compare results with what we expect.

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Success Criteria:

Students can:

• Use probability language (e.g. likely, unlikely, certain, impossible) to describe outcomes.
• Make predictions before an event and reflect on the results after experimentation.
• Recognise that outcomes aren’t always what we expect even when the event is repeated.
• Work cooperatively to complete a simple hands-on probability experiment.

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Duration:

30 minutes
Class Size: 27 students

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Resources Needed:

• Plastic cups or yoghurt pots (1 per trio of students)
• Paper clips (at least one per group)
• Coin (1 per group)
• A4 paper
• Whiteboard & marker
• Pencils

Note: All materials are easily found in most classrooms, keeping within the “minimum resources” brief.

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Prior Knowledge:

This is Lesson 5 in a sequence on Probability, and students have already been introduced to:

• Vocabulary: likely, unlikely, certain, impossible
• Simple chance experiments
• Graphing results from basic trials
• Comparing predictions with outcomes in controlled scenarios

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Differentiation:

Support for Diverse Learners:

• Use mixed-ability groups of three to allow for peer support.
• Sentence starters provided on the board e.g. "I think the spinner will land on... because..."
• Use visual symbols (tick/cross or colour dots) to support language understanding.

Extension for Advanced Learners:

• Ask students to design their own variation of the spinner or predict longer-term frequencies (e.g. “If we spin 100 times, how many purples might we expect?”)
• Record patterns across multiple groups to identify trends or anomalies in class-wide data.

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Lesson Flow:

1. Introduction & Tuning In (5 minutes)

Hook the class with this scenario:

“Today we’ll be spinning, tossing, and predicting! Ever tossed a coin and it landed on its edge? Ever spun something and it landed right on the line? Let’s test how chance really works!”

Quick recap of language: Write four sentence starters on the board and have learners chorally complete them:

• It is impossible for a coin to...
• It is certain a spinner with only red sections will...
• It is likely that...
• It is unlikely that...

Revisit previous prediction outcomes. Ask: “Did everything always go how we expected?”

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2. Class Warm-up Activity – Toss It! (5 minutes)

Group Size: Pairs/trios
Each group adds tally marks to record results from tossing a coin 10 times.

Ask before they start:

"What do you predict? Will the number of heads or tails be equal? Why?"

Once tossed, students compare actual results with predictions and discuss “real-world randomness.”

Ask:

• Were your results what you expected?
• How could we make this test fairer or more accurate?

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3. Main Activity – Spin It! (15 minutes)

Objective:

Create and test a simple spinner model and compare results with prediction.

Instructions:

1. Each group draws a circle divided into 3 differently-sized coloured sections on A4 paper (not equal sizes – encourage creativity). For those who find dividing challenging, offer templates.
2. Insert a paperclip spinner using a pencil through the paperclip and centre.
3. Before starting, students make a prediction:

   "If we spin 15 times, which colour will show up the most? Why?"

4. Begin spinning and record the colour outcomes (use tallies).

Group Questions:

• Did your most frequent colour match your prediction?
• Why or why not?
• What could affect your spinner’s outcome?

Optional challenge: Compare results between groups who had similar spinner designs.

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4. Wrap Up & Reflection (5 minutes)

Come together as a class. Ask:

• What did we notice when we compared predictions with real trials?
• Was it fair/fun/surprising?
• How can chance be used in games, sports, or even weather predictions?

Mini self-check exit ticket:

• How might you finish this sentence?

"In probability, I learnt that sometimes even when we expect ____, we might actually get ____."

Invite students to leave their "wow" fact or sentence with you orally as they exit or on a sticky note if time permits.

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Extension Ideas (if time allows or for follow-up lesson):

• Create a “Probability Carnival” table where students design their own games based on chance (e.g. coloured cup game or mini dice tournament).
• Start collecting “real-world” probability stories from newspapers, sports scores or weather predictions to tie in concepts over time.
• Flip coins or spin the same spinner on another day and compare — was it consistent?

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Teacher's Tip 🎯

This lesson works beautifully as a high-energy, one-off maths session with strong recall value due to its use of hands-on materials, prediction, and ownership of outcomes. Perfect for visiting or release teachers looking to engage a class quickly and effectively!

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Ngā mihi and kai pai tōu ako — Happy teaching!