Interpreting Results

Overview

In this lesson (16 of 30), students analyse the outcomes of probability experiments completed in previous lessons, linking observed relative frequencies to expected probabilities and explaining any differences. They will interpret sample spaces and use probability language to draw conclusions.

Learning intentions

WALT: Analyze results from probability experiments to interpret outcomes and draw evidence-based conclusions about probability.

Success criteria

• I can describe the sample space and the event I tested.
• I can calculate or compare relative frequency for an outcome (e.g. “about 1/3 of the time…”).
• I can explain whether my results match the expected probability and why they might differ.
• I can communicate my findings clearly, including using probability terms like probability, event, favourable outcome, trial.

Curriculum links

• Mathematics — Probability: identify the sample space for single-stage events; assign probabilities and predict relative frequencies for related events.
• Mathematics — Probability: conduct repeated chance experiments and run simulations; compare predictions with observed results, explaining differences.
• Mathematical — Statistical investigations (from the broader unit): analyse results and interpret patterns to support conclusions.

Lesson structure (60 minutes)

1. 0–5 min · Quick recap conversation. Teacher asks: “What does probability predict, and what does relative frequency tell us?” Students share in pairs using one sentence each.

2. 5–15 min · Guided analysis model (teacher think-aloud). Teacher displays a worked example table (from a previous experiment such as dice or coin) showing expected probability and observed outcomes; students annotate it using “expected vs observed” prompts.

3. 15–30 min · Group results processing. Students in groups of 3–4 receive their own experiment tally sheet(s). Teacher circulates with guided questions: “What was the event? What was your favourable outcome? What relative frequency did you get? How should it compare to the expected probability?” Students record answers in a simple results summary.

4. 30–45 min · Compare and explain differences (structured discussion). Teacher prompts a whole-class discussion using sentence starters: “Our observed relative frequency was ___, so it was ___ compared to the expected probability.” “It may be different because ___.” Students complete a “Match or not?” justification in their books and add one reason linked to randomness, sample size, or chance.

5. 45–55 min · Dyslexia-friendly sharing: findings aloud. Students choose one key finding to share (teacher provides options such as: “Most common outcome…”, “Least common outcome…”, “Did we match expectation?”). Peer readers can read sentences from the student’s written notes while the student points to their evidence.

6. 55–60 min · Exit ticket (individual). Students answer two questions:

1. “What is the event you tested and what is the expected probability?”
2. “Using your data, state whether your results matched expectation and give one explanation.”

Resources

• Students’ experiment tally sheets and notes from prior lessons
• Simple results table template: Outcome / Favourable? / Trials / Relative frequency / Expected probability / Comment
• Probability word bank (probability, event, favourable outcome, trial, sample space)
• Dice/coin spinner cards or printed sample-space diagrams (for quick reference)
• Timer for group tasks
• Dyslexia-friendly sentence starters sheet (one page, large font)
• Mini whiteboards or notebooks for exit ticket

Assessment

• Teacher observation during group work using guided questions checklist (event identified, relative frequency computed/estimated, explanation attempted).
• Review of “expected vs observed” comparison in books for use of probability language.
• Exit ticket to verify each student can state the event, expected probability, and justify results.

Differentiation

• Support: Provide guided question cards (event statement, favourable outcome definition, and a scaffold for “expected vs observed” wording). Offer pre-filled probability expectations for common experiments (e.g. dice outcomes).
• Support for writing: Offer sentence starters and a partially completed results table (students fill missing cells only).
• Dyslexia-friendly reading options: Allow peer read-aloud of findings during sharing; teacher can also provide audio recording of model sentence starters (teacher reads once; students repeat).
• Extension: Challenge students to estimate how results might change with more trials (link to repeated experiments) and to propose a more precise explanation for differences (e.g. small sample effects, clustering by chance).