Probability Experiments

Overview

Students conduct hands-on probability experiments (coins, dice, and a small spinner) and connect outcomes to sample spaces and predicted probabilities. They then compare their observed relative frequencies with what they expected, setting up the next lessons in using simulations and making predictions.

Learning intentions

WALT: conduct probability experiments and document results. WALT: identify the sample space for single-stage events and use it to assign probabilities. WALT: use relative frequency from repeated trials to estimate the probability of an event.

Success criteria

• I can list the sample space for a single-stage chance event (coin, dice, or spinner).
• I can assign probabilities to each outcome and identify the probability of a target event.
• I can run repeated trials fairly and record results clearly in a table.
• I can calculate an estimated probability (relative frequency) and compare it to my expected probability.

Curriculum links

• Probability — identify the sample space for single-stage events; assign probabilities; predict relative frequencies for related events.
• Probability — conduct repeated chance experiments and compare predictions with observed results after many trials.

Lesson structure (60 minutes)

1. 0–5 min · Hook conversation. Teacher shows a “mystery prediction” card: “What is the chance of getting a 6?” Students discuss quickly: “Does it mean you’ll get a 6 every time you roll?” Students share 1 idea with a partner, then one student explains to the class.

2. 5–15 min · Quick direct teach: terms + sample spaces. Teacher revisits probability language (trial, experiment, event, sample space) and models one example: dice roll, event “6”. Students complete a mini “sample space + probability” for one event on the board (e.g., coin: Heads).

3. 15–20 min · Set up fairness + recording. Teacher models how to run trials fairly and record outcomes (one row per trial; tick marks allowed for frequency). Students read the experiment sheet aloud in pairs (teacher monitors for misconceptions) and identify the target event for their group.

4. 20–45 min · Hands-on experiments (repeated trials). Teacher circulates to check that students: roll/flip/spin the correct number of times, record accurately, and agree on what counts as the target event. Students run 3 experiments in rotation (about 8 trials each per experiment type, or 15–20 total trials per group depending on equipment):

• Coin: event “Heads”
• Dice: event “6”
• Spinner: event “red sector” (or teacher-chosen sector label) Students record outcomes and tally frequencies of the target event.

5. 45–55 min · Calculate estimated probability + compare. Teacher prompts a comparison: “Expected probability vs estimated probability from relative frequency.” Students compute: estimated probability = (number of target outcomes) ÷ (total trials) and write a short statement: “My result is higher/lower and why that might happen.”

6. 55–60 min · Exit ticket (quick). Teacher collects exit tickets with one targeted question. Students answer independently: “List the sample space for a dice roll and write the probability of rolling a 6” OR “From your experiment, what is your estimated probability for the target event?”

Resources

• Coin sets (enough for small groups)
• Dice (multiple sets; standard six-sided)
• Paper or plastic spinner with clearly labelled equal sectors and a “target” colour/number
• Experiment recording sheets (table for outcomes + total + target tally)
• Counters/tally marks materials
• Timer (for rotation management)
• Student calculators (optional; not required if fractions are simple)
• Dyslexia-friendly printed instructions (large font, high contrast, lots of spacing)
• Teacher example worked sheet (sample space + probability)

Assessment

• During experiments: teacher checks accurate recording and correct understanding of “event” (target outcome).
• During comparison: students’ estimated probability and written comparison statement.
• Exit ticket: verifies sample space and probability of a single-stage event (accuracy check).

Differentiation

• Grouping by confidence/ability:
• Support group: fewer steps per worksheet (focus on one event first), sentence starters for recording and comparing.
• On-level group: full task across coin/dice/spinner with standard recording.
• Extension group: include a second event (e.g., dice: “odd number” and “number greater than 4”) and estimate both probabilities from the same trials.
• Scaffolds:
• Sentence starters: “My target event was…”, “The expected probability was…”, “My estimated probability was…”, “I think it was different because…”.
• Worked example sheet available on desks for “sample space” formatting.
• Dyslexia-friendly reading options:
• Instructions provided in plain layout (short lines, large font, minimal colour-only text).
• Teacher reads key instructions aloud once at the start of experiments; students then use a “checklist” to follow steps.
• Offer “audio read-along” version of instructions (teacher reads or recorded device) for students who request it.
• Accuracy supports:
• Use tallies for frequency and require total trials written clearly at the bottom of each table.
• If a group is struggling, teacher reduces the number of trials to ensure quality data, then helps them compute estimated probability with fewer entries.
• Collaboration: roles within groups (Recorder, Roller/Flipper, Tally Checker, Reporter) so responsibility is shared and participation is clear.

Success criteria for each lesson (included)

This lesson:

• I can list the sample space for a single-stage event and assign the probability of the target outcome.
• I can conduct repeated trials fairly, document results, and use relative frequency to estimate probability.
• I can compare expected vs observed results and explain that random variation can cause differences.