Probability Project I

Overview

This lesson starts a short probability project for Year 7. Students will choose a context, identify a sample space for a single-stage event, and draft a clear project plan that includes how they will estimate probability using relative frequency.

Learning intentions

WALT: Start a probability project where students:

• identify a suitable single-stage event and its sample space
• assign probabilities to outcomes using a frequency or reasoning approach
• draft a project plan with trial/simulation steps to estimate relative frequency
• communicate project decisions clearly using an organised step list

Success criteria

Students can:

• draft a project plan using a step-by-step list (aim, event, sample space, outcomes, method, how to record results, how to compare expected vs observed)
• write a correct sample space for their chosen single-stage event
• state how they will assign probability and how they will use trials to estimate relative frequency
• explain at least one choice they made based on interest, available materials, and feasibility

Curriculum links

• Probability — AC9M7P01: identify sample space for single-stage events; assign probabilities to outcomes; predict relative frequencies for related events
• Probability — AC9M7P02: conduct repeated chance experiments and simulations with many trials; compare predictions with observed results and explain differences

Lesson structure (60 minutes)

1. 0–5 min · Hook conversation. Teacher shows three quick “what if” prompts (e.g., “Spin once: red/blue/green”, “Roll one dice: 1–6”, “Draw once: coin from a bag”) and asks: “What are all the possible outcomes?” Students turn-and-talk, then share one sample space idea.

2. 5–15 min · Mini-lesson: project ingredients. Teacher models a project template on the board: Event → Sample space → Probability (expected) → Trials → Relative frequency (observed) → Compare. Students copy the template into their workbook and highlight the parts that match AC9M7P01 and AC9M7P02.

3. 15–25 min · Choose project focus. Teacher presents 4–5 project options and students pick one (or suggest their own with teacher approval). Examples:

• Dice “6” frequency prediction
• Coin “Heads” frequency prediction
• Spinner outcomes (e.g., “land on A”)
• Lucky dip (e.g., draw 1 coloured token) Students form interest-based groups of 2–3 and complete “My project focus” in one sentence.

4. 25–35 min · Draft: sample space and outcomes. Teacher gives a worked example of listing a sample space for a single-stage event (students practise writing outcomes in a structured list). Students write their sample space for their event and circle the “target outcome” for their probability question (e.g., “getting 6”, “landing on red”, “drawing a blue token”).

5. 35–45 min · Assign probability (expected) + relative frequency plan. Teacher prompts: “Probability is what we expect. Relative frequency is what we observe after many trials.” Students assign probabilities for each outcome (or at least for the target outcome) and write how they will run enough trials/simulation (e.g., 30, 100, 200 using a class device or spreadsheet).

6. 45–58 min · Complete a project plan checklist (lists for dyslexia-friendly organisation). Teacher circulates with a checklist and models how to write clear steps. Students use a checklist to finish their plan draft:

• Aim/question
• Single-stage event description
• Sample space (complete)
• Probability assignment for outcomes/target
• Trials plan (how many, how recorded)
• Prediction of relative frequency
• How they will compare expected vs observed and explain differences Students do a quick peer check using “Two stars and a wish” focused on sample space accuracy and clarity of steps.

7. 58–60 min · Exit ticket: “Plan ready?” Students answer:

• What is your target outcome?
• Paste/type your sample space in order (one list). Teacher checks quickly for completeness and accuracy.

Resources

• Spinner or dice (physical) and/or online simulation access (teacher-prepared, no hyperlinks)
• Coloured counters/tokens for lucky dip (or printed token cards)
• Project plan checklist printout (one page, step-by-step)
• Recording sheets for trials (table: trial #, outcome, counts)
• Whiteboard/markers and student notebooks
• Timer for transitions
• Optional: sentence starters and dyslexia-friendly font handout versions of templates
• Calculator/spreadsheet or simple tally chart materials

Assessment

• Formative: teacher observes groups during sample space listing and probability assignment
• Formative: peer check using checklist criteria (sample space complete, target outcome identified, trial method stated)
• Exit ticket: sample space and target outcome correctness to confirm readiness for the next lesson

Differentiation

• Support: provide a partially completed project template with blanks; offer sentence starters (“My single-stage event is…”, “My sample space is…”) and a model sample space to compare
• Support: allow students to choose from teacher-prepared project options if self-selection becomes difficult
• SEN/dyslexia-friendly: use lists, short lines, and colour-coding for outcomes; provide an audio-reading option of the project checklist instructions (teacher reads aloud or student uses built-in device text-to-speech)
• Extension: for students ready to go further, ask them to include probability for each outcome and make a more specific prediction (e.g., “In 100 trials, I expect about ___ target outcomes”).

Success criteria for each lesson

• Students can draft a project plan using an organised step list.
• Students can identify a correct sample space for a single-stage event and state a target outcome.
• Students can assign probability (expected) and describe how they will estimate relative frequency using repeated trials/simulation.