Probability Project II

Overview

In this lesson students continue their probability project, focusing on sample spaces and assigning probabilities for single-stage events, then using predictions based on relative frequencies. Students will discuss progress and receive structured feedback while completing a dyslexia-friendly project outline.

Learning intentions

Students will:

• identify the sample space for single-stage events
• assign probabilities to outcomes and use these to make predictions about relative frequencies
• compare their predictions with results from their trials/simulation evidence from earlier in the project
• articulate their thinking clearly in short partner and whole-class discussions

Success criteria

Students can:

• list a correct sample space for a chosen single-stage event
• assign probability values to outcomes using consistent reasoning
• write a prediction about what outcomes should occur relatively often, based on probability
• show at least one clear “next step” after teacher feedback

Curriculum links

• Probability — identify sample space for single-stage events, assign probabilities, and predict relative frequencies - Probability — use repeated trials/simulations and compare observed results with predictions ## Lesson structure (60 minutes)

1. 0–5 min · Warm-up discussion. Teacher prompts: “What is a sample space, and why does it matter?” Students share one example with a partner, then one pair shares with the class.

2. 5–15 min · Project check-in mini-lesson. Teacher shows a model of a completed “single-stage” probability section (sample space → probabilities → prediction). Students listen and then underline the three parts in their own draft plan using their outline template.

3. 15–35 min · Independent project work (quiet then consult). Teacher circulates for quick feedback, focusing on whether students’ sample spaces are complete and probabilities are assigned correctly. Students work to produce or refine:

• sample space table/list
• probability for each outcome
• one relative-frequency prediction (e.g., “Outcome A should occur more often than B” or an estimated number out of a set of trials)

4. 35–47 min · Feedback sessions in pairs. Students swap with a “feedback partner” using sentence starters:

• “Your sample space is complete because…”
• “I think this probability should be…”
• “A stronger prediction would be… because…” Teacher pulls 5–6 students in quick groups for targeted conferencing, checking reasoning and language.

5. 47–55 min · Whole-class conversation: progress gallery. Teacher asks three guiding questions:

• “Which part of your project is strongest so far?”
• “What confusion did you have with sample spaces/probabilities?”
• “What will you fix next lesson?” Students contribute one response each (or pass), keeping talk respectful and purposeful.

6. 55–60 min · Exit ticket (rapid). Students complete a short written check:

• “My sample space is:” (1–2 lines)
• “The probability of my event outcome X is:”
• “My relative-frequency prediction is:” (one sentence)

Resources

• Dyslexia-friendly probability project outline template (one-page)
• Project worksheets from previous lessons (trial/simulation notes if available)
• Probability vocabulary cards: sample space, outcome, event, probability, trial, relative frequency
• Sentence starter strips for feedback partner work
• Coloured pens or highlighters (optional) to mark parts: sample space / probabilities / prediction
• Device access if students are using a digital simulation tool (only if your class has it available)
• Teacher feedback checklist (for quick circulation)

Assessment

• Formative: teacher circulation checks sample space completeness and probability assignment quality
• Formative: feedback partner contributions (can they justify with “because” statements?)
• Exit ticket checks understanding of AC9M7P01 elements (sample space, probabilities, relative-frequency prediction)

Differentiation

• Support for diverse learners:
• Provide sentence starters and a partially completed example on the board during independent work
• Allow students to choose from common single-stage events (coin, dice, spinner) with a teacher-approved list to reduce overload
• Offer a “two-tier” template: students fill in the parts they can (sample space first, then probabilities, then prediction)
• Dyslexia-friendly reading options:
• Provide printed instructions with larger font and short lines; read out directions once and again during key transitions
• Offer audio read-aloud for the template directions and sentence starters (if devices are available), and allow students to use highlighted key terms
• Encourage “show not tell” using tables and symbol-based notes (P(outcome), fractions/percentages) instead of long paragraphs
• Extension:
• Students add a second prediction linked to changing the number of trials (e.g., “After more trials, the observed relative frequency should…”)
• Students include a brief “reasoning sentence” comparing prediction and any observed evidence they already have

Extension (optional)

• SKIP