Chance and Events

Grade Level

1st Grade

Duration

45 minutes

Class Size

20 students

Curriculum Alignment

International Baccalaureate Primary Years Programme (PYP)

Transdisciplinary Theme: How the world works
Key Concept: Causation – understanding why things happen
Related Concept: Probability, Events
Learner Profile: Inquirers, Thinkers, Communicators

Jamaica National Standard Curriculum Alignment:

Strand: Measurement and Data
Cluster: Reasoning About Data and Probability
Learning Outcome: Students will understand and categorize events based on likelihood – certain, possible, and impossible.

Learning Objectives

By the end of the lesson, students will be able to:

Understand the concept of probability in simple terms (certain, possible, impossible events).
Identify and classify various everyday events as certain, possible, or impossible.
Communicate their reasoning using clear explanations and vocabulary.
Engage collaboratively in a hands-on sorting activity.
Demonstrate understanding through an interactive exit assessment adapted for diverse learning needs (including dyslexia-friendly approaches).

Materials

Sets of laminated event cards (e.g., “It is raining,” “The sun is shining,” “A snowstorm in summer,” “You will eat today,” “You will see a bird,” “Fish will fly,” etc.)
Three labeled large baskets or boxes: Certain, Possible, Impossible
Visual chart with symbols and words: ✔️ Certain, ❓ Possible, ❌ Impossible (colorful, dyslexia-friendly fonts and icons)
Stickers or stamps for positive reinforcement
A weather song about certainty and chance (custom-made or adapted)
Whiteboard and markers
Student name tags and visual timers
Dyslexia-friendly reading supports (colored overlays, large print cards)

Lesson Breakdown

1. Engage (5 minutes)

Greet students warmly and gather them on the carpet.
Introduce the concept of “chance” through a simple story: "Imagine you wake up and look outside… What can happen? What will definitely happen? What cannot happen?"
Sing a short, upbeat song about “Rain or Shine” that highlights different weather events and their chances.
Use hand gestures to symbolize certain (thumbs up), possible (questioning hand), and impossible (cross arms).

2. Explore (15 minutes)

Explain the task: “We have cards that tell us things that might happen. We need to put each card in a box: Is it certain? Is it possible? Or is it impossible?”
Show an example card (e.g., “The sun will rise”) and discuss why it is certain. Place it in the “Certain” box together.
Divide the class into small groups of four; give each group a set of cards and baskets.
Circulate, listening and prompting with questions like: “Why do you think this is possible?” or “Can that happen in real life?”
Differentiate support by pairing dyslexic students with buddies and providing colored overlays to help with card reading.

3. Explain (10 minutes)

Bring class back together to discuss their sorting decisions.
Record some examples on the whiteboard using clear language and visuals:
- Certain = will definitely happen (e.g., you will eat today)
- Possible = might happen or might not (e.g., it might rain today)
- Impossible = cannot happen (e.g., a snowstorm in summer)
Ask volunteers to explain their reasoning, encouraging the use of newly learned vocabulary (certain, possible, impossible).

4. Elaborate (8 minutes)

Play a quick interactive game “Probability Charades.”
Show an event card to a volunteer who acts it out (e.g., pretending to eat ice cream when the sun is shining).
Class guesses if it is certain, possible, or impossible and shows the matching symbol with their hands (thumbs up / question mark / arms crossed).
Include some trickier cards to challenge thinking, such as “Fish flying.”

5. Evaluate (7 minutes)

Distribute a simple worksheet: three columns labeled Certain, Possible, Impossible; students draw or write one example in each.
Provide stencil letters or stamps for dyslexic students; allow drawings as an alternative.
Walking around, give positive feedback and stickers to encourage participation.

Differentiation Strategies

Use multisensory instructions (songs, gestures, visuals).
Provide extra time and one-on-one support during group activity.
Use dyslexia-friendly fonts, colored overlays, and taped cards.
Pair students strategically to foster peer learning.
Accept oral explanations or drawings for the evaluation task for students with writing challenges.

Assessment

Informal observation during group sorting activity to check understanding.
Listening to students’ reasoning during class discussion.
Review of the final worksheet for comprehension of the three categories of events.
Use of hand signals in the charades game to quickly assess grasp of concepts.

Reflection and Extension

Reflect with students: “Was there anything that was surprising or tricky to decide about?”
Encourage parents to discuss real-life events at home, using the same categories.
Provide optional cards for students to make at home with family, to deepen understanding of everyday probability.

Notes from Hachette Learning & IB PYP Recommendations

Engaging students through active learning aligns well with the PYP’s emphasis on inquiry and concept-based learning.
Using hands-on materials and multiple representations supports differentiated learning and inclusion, particularly for students with dyslexia.
The clear link to cause-and-effect encourages thinking about the natural world and probability in everyday life.
Positive reinforcement and peer collaboration develop communication and social skills critical in early years.

Summary:
This interactive, multisensory lesson develops foundational probability thinking by categorizing real-world events as certain, possible, or impossible, aligned with the IB PYP framework and Jamaica’s National Standards. It engages young learners through stories, songs, collaborative sorting, and dramatic play, carefully supporting diverse learners in the classroom.

Teaching Instructions