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Probability and Chance Basics

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Probability and Chance Basics

A community fair is planning games. Use probability words and the clues in each question to help choose fair, sensible games. For questions about likelihood, explain your thinking; answers may vary when the event depends on real-life conditions.

Chance language

Use the words impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely and certain to describe how probable an event is.

1.Match each probability word to its meaning.

Certain
Likely
Even chance
Unlikely
Impossible

Will probably happen
Cannot happen
Probably will not happen
Will definitely happen
Just as likely to happen as not happen

2.At an outdoor fair in Darwin, the sun will rise tomorrow. Choose the best probability word.

Impossible
Unlikely
Likely
Certain

3.A fair raffle drum contains 10 tickets: 8 say PRIZE and 2 say TRY AGAIN. One ticket is drawn without looking. How likely is it that the ticket says PRIZE?

4.The fair’s prize box contains only red and blue badges. Is picking a green badge possible, unlikely or impossible? Explain.

Try the games

A spinner and a number cube are used in two fairground games. Study the visuals, then answer the questions.

5.This fair spinner has four equal sections. What is the chance of landing on yellow?

6.On the spinner shown, is landing on a colour other than yellow likely, unlikely or certain?

7.A standard number cube has faces numbered 1 to 6. Which event has an even chance?

Rolling a number less than 7
Rolling a 6
Rolling an odd number
Rolling a 1

8.A bag has 3 green counters and 3 orange counters. Ivy draws one counter without looking. What is the chance she draws orange?

Impossible
Unlikely
Even chance
Certain

9.A coin is flipped 10 times. Talia predicts 10 heads. Is this impossible, unlikely, an even chance or certain? Explain why.

Make a fair game

Use what you know about chance to check a game and create your own example.

10.A lucky dip bag has 9 toy cars and 1 bouncy ball. Jarrah says, “You are just as likely to pick a car as a ball.” Is he correct? Give a reason.

TrueFalse

11.Write one event that is certain and one event that is impossible when drawing a counter from a bag containing only red counters.

12.Design a fair spinner game with an even chance of winning. Describe how many equal sections it has, what each section shows, and which outcome wins.