Week: Probability & Outcomes (Small Group – 20 Minutes Daily)

Grade: 7th Grade
Class Size: 16 Students
Standards:

• CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.7.SP.C.6: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events.
• CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.7.SP.C.7: Compare theoretical and experimental probabilities.
• ELP Standard 2: Students will produce clear and coherent speech and text.

Vocabulary

• Probability
• Chance
• Likely / Unlikely
• Outcomes
• Sample Space
• Event
• Mean / Median / Mode (used to discuss experimental probability data)

DAY 1: What is Probability?

I Can...

• Describe probability using words and numbers between 0 and 1.

Success Criteria

• I correctly place probabilities on a number line from 0 to 1.
• I can use the words likely, unlikely, impossible, and certain to describe events.

Anticipatory Set (2 minutes)

Pose question:
“If I flip a coin, will it land on heads every time?”
Students respond with thumbs up (yes) or thumbs down (no).

I Do (Modeling) (5 minutes)

• Draw number line from 0 to 1 on board.
• Explain:
  • 0 = impossible event
  • 1 = certain event
  • 0.5 = equally likely event
• Use coin toss example: Probability(heads) = 1/2 or 0.5.

CFU #1:
“Is getting heads certain, impossible, or equally likely?” (Show thumbs up/down, or verbally share.)

We Do (Guided Practice) (5 minutes)

• Read aloud scenarios; students classify the probability as 0, 0.5, or 1:
  1. Snow in Arizona during summer → unlikely (near 0)
  2. Sun rising tomorrow → certain (1)
  3. Rolling a 7 on a six-sided die → impossible (0)
• Students hold up mini whiteboards with 0, 0.5, or 1.

CFU #2: Check answers and provide immediate feedback.

You Do (Independent Practice) (4 minutes)

Students classify in writing:

• Winning the lottery (unlikely)
• Getting homework tonight (likely)
• Rolling a number less than 7 on a die (certain)

Closure (2 minutes)

Use sentence frames for discussion:
“The probability is ___ because ___.”

Differentiation

• Dyslexia-friendly reading: Use clear fonts (e.g., Open Dyslexic), larger font size, and colour contrasting backgrounds for slides or visuals.
• Visual learners benefit from number line and thumbs signals.
• Language support: Provide sentence frames.
• For students needing extra support, pair verbal explanation with real coin tosses to make abstract concepts concrete.

Extension

• Challenge advanced learners to represent probabilities as decimals and percentages, explaining differences between the formats.

DAY 2: Sample Space and Outcomes

I Can...

• Identify and write the sample space for simple probability experiments.

Success Criteria

• I list all possible outcomes of an event.
• I explain why the sample space includes all possible results.

Anticipatory Set (2 minutes)

Hold up a coin:
“What are ALL the possible outcomes when flipping this coin?”

I Do (Modeling) (5 minutes)

• Write sample space for coin: {H, T}
• Write sample space for 6-sided die: {1,2,3,4,5,6}
• Explain what a sample space means: all the outcomes that can happen.

CFU #1:
“Is 7 part of the sample space for a die roll?” (Yes/No verbal or board response)

We Do (Guided Practice - Kagan Activity ‘Rally Robin’) (6 minutes)

• Create sample space verbally for:
  • Spinner with red/blue sections
  • Rolling a die
• Students partner up and take turns naming one outcome each until the sample space is complete.
• Teacher monitors and reinforces completeness.

CFU #2:
“Did we list ALL possible outcomes?” (Quick class thumbs up/down)

You Do (Independent Practice) (4 minutes)

Students write the sample space for: Flipping a coin twice. Expected answer: {HH, HT, TH, TT}

Closure (2 minutes)

Sentence frame: “The sample space is ___.”

Differentiation

• Use visuals to support students who struggle with memory (diagram with pictures of coins or dice).
• For students with dyslexia: print sample space prompts spaced out and colour-coded.
• For advanced learners: Explore sample space for rolling two dice (sum of outcomes).

DAY 3: Theoretical Probability

I Can...

• Calculate probability as a fraction using favorable outcomes and total outcomes.

Success Criteria

• I write probabilities as fractions.
• I state how many favorable outcomes and total outcomes there are.

Anticipatory Set (2 minutes)

Ask:
“What are my chances of rolling a 3 on a die?”

I Do (Modeling) (5 minutes)

• Define probability: favorable outcomes ÷ total outcomes.
• Example: Rolling a 3 → 1 favorable outcome / 6 total outcomes = 1/6.
• Show how to write fraction and verbal explanation.

CFU #1:
“How many total outcomes are on a die?” (Expect “6”)

We Do (Guided Practice) (6 minutes)

Calculate:

• Probability of rolling an even number → favorable: {2,4,6} → 3/6
• Probability of rolling a number greater than 4 → favorable: {5,6} → 2/6

Students write answers on mini whiteboards.

CFU #2: Quick review of answers.

You Do (Independent Practice) (4 minutes)

Calculate:

• Probability of rolling a 1
• Probability of rolling an odd number

Closure (2 minutes)

Sentence frame: “The probability is ___ out of ___.”

Differentiation

• Provide visual fraction models.
• Use colour-coded chips or counters for hands-on fraction modeling.
• Dyslexia-friendly: simple sentence frames and vocabulary cards.
• Extension: Convert fractions to decimals and percentages, explaining relationships.

DAY 4: Experimental Probability and Data

I Can...

• Compare experimental probability with theoretical probability and explain differences.

Success Criteria

• I conduct a simple experiment and record data.
• I calculate experimental probability from data.
• I compare experimental and theoretical probabilities.

Anticipatory Set (2 minutes)

Ask:
“If we flip a coin 10 times, will we get exactly 5 heads?” (Discuss expectations.)

I Do (Modeling) (5 minutes)

• Flip coin 10 times, record outcomes visibly.
• Calculate experimental probability: number of heads ÷ 10 flips.
• Define experimental probability: what really happens.

CFU #1:
“Is experimental probability always exact?” (No, usually close but varies.)

We Do (Guided Practice - Class Experiment) (6 minutes)

• Roll a die 10 times and record results as a class.
• Calculate experimental probabilities for selected outcomes.
• Compare to theoretical probabilities.

CFU #2:
Class discussion: How does experimental compare to theoretical? (Expected variance.)

You Do (Independent Practice) (4 minutes)

Answer:
“Which is more reliable and why: theoretical or experimental probability?” (Written or verbal)

Closure (2 minutes)

Sentence frame: “Experimental probability is ___ because ___.”

Differentiation

• Use clear charts to record data, visually engaging.
• Dyslexia-friendly: use speech-to-text or oral recording options for responses.
• Provide graphic organizers to compare theoretical and experimental probabilities.
• Extension: Students conduct their own experiment at home; present data next day.

Final Notes

This four-day unit engages 7th graders through explicit instruction, partner Kagan activities, frequent CFUs for checks on understanding, and concise independent work. Sentence frames support ELP and language development. Dyslexia-friendly strategies and visual aids foster accessibility. Extensions provide opportunities to deepen understanding for advanced learners. These lessons fully align with CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.7.SP.C.6 and 7.SP.C.7 requirements, preparing students with foundational probability skills linked to real data and theoretical models.

This plan offers a structured but flexible framework to ensure all students gain confidence and mastery in probability within manageable 20-minute small-group sessions.