Weather Data Risk Analysis

Name:

Date:

Part 1: Read the Weather Data

Weather describes conditions over minutes, hours, or days. Climate describes usual patterns over many years. Study the 7-day data below.

Mini Data Table: Local Weather Forecast

Day | High Temperature | Precipitation | Wind Speed | Hazard Note

Monday | 68°F | 0 in | 8 mph | Dry roads

Tuesday | 72°F | 0.10 in | 12 mph | Light rain possible

Wednesday | 75°F | 0.35 in | 18 mph | Heavy rain; ponding possible

Thursday | 70°F | 0.60 in | 25 mph | Thunderstorms; flooding risk

Friday | 64°F | 0.20 in | 20 mph | Wet and windy

Saturday | 58°F | 0 in | 15 mph | Cooler; roads drying

Sunday | 62°F | 0 in | 7 mph | Clear and calm

1. Which day had the warmest temperature? Cite the temperature as evidence.

2. Calculate the temperature range. Show your work.

3. Calculate the total precipitation for the week. Which day had the greatest amount?

4. Which day presents the greatest travel concern? Select one answer and explain using two data points.

Monday

Wednesday

Thursday

Sunday

5. Explain one weather process that could lead to rain or a thunderstorm. Use at least three steps.

Word choices: evaporation, water vapor, cooling, condensation, clouds, precipitation, air pressure, wind

Part 2: Analyze Risk and Communicate Evidence

Risk = likelihood × impact

Likelihood means how likely an event is. Impact means how much harm or disruption it could cause. Use a scale from 1 (low) to 3 (high).

Hazard Scenario Table

Flood: Two days of heavy rain may fill ditches and streams.

Heat wave: Three days may reach 95°F or higher.

Blizzard: Heavy snow and winds may make roads unsafe.

Severe thunderstorm: Heavy rain, lightning, and 25 mph winds are forecast.

6. Complete the risk ratings. Choose one hazard from the table and rate its likelihood and impact from 1–3. Calculate the risk score.

Hazard: ____________________ Likelihood: ____ Impact: ____ Risk score: ____

7. Justify your ratings with specific evidence from the data or scenario.

8. Write a practical safety response for the most significant risk. Explain how the action reduces harm.

Sentence frame: The evidence shows __________, so people should __________ because __________.

9. Claim-Evidence-Reasoning: What is the most significant weather risk this week?

Claim: The most significant risk is ________________________________________________.

Evidence: One data point is ____________________. Another data point is ____________________.

Reasoning: These data support my claim because __________________________________________.

10. Check your success criteria.

I can distinguish weather from climate using time words.

I can interpret data and cite specific evidence.

I can explain a weather process in steps.

I can calculate risk and recommend a safety response.

Support Bank

Vocabulary: forecast—prediction; precipitation—rain, snow, or other water falling from clouds; hazard—something that may cause harm; likelihood—chance that something will happen; impact—effect or harm; evidence—information that supports an idea.

Sentence frames: “The pattern is __________.” “The evidence shows __________.” “The risk is high because __________.” “People should __________ to stay safe.”

Challenge: Compare Monday–Thursday with Saturday–Sunday. Describe one pattern and explain how a changing forecast could change the risk score. If possible, compare these data with a long-term climate record.

Teacher Answer Key

1. Wednesday, 75°F.

2. 75°F − 58°F = 17°F.

3. 0 + 0.10 + 0.35 + 0.60 + 0.20 + 0 + 0 = 1.25 inches. Thursday had the greatest amount, with 0.60 inches.

4. Thursday is the strongest answer. Evidence may include 0.60 inches of precipitation, 25 mph winds, thunderstorms, and a flooding-risk note. Wednesday may receive partial credit if evidence is accurate and reasoning is clear.

5. Sample response: Sunlight warms water. Water evaporates into water vapor. Rising air cools, causing condensation and cloud formation. If droplets grow large enough, precipitation falls.

6–7. Answers may vary. Sample: Severe thunderstorm—likelihood 3, impact 3, risk score 9. Evidence includes the Thursday forecast of thunderstorms, 0.60 inches of rain, and 25 mph winds. A flood could also receive a high score because heavy rain may fill streams and ditches.

8–9. Sample response: The most significant risk is severe thunderstorms and flooding on Thursday. The evidence is 0.60 inches of rain, 25 mph winds, and the hazard note. People should monitor the forecast, avoid flooded roads, and move indoors during lightning because these actions reduce exposure to danger.

Weather and climate reminder: “It is raining this week” describes weather. “This region usually has snowy winters” describes climate.

Standards connection: Students cite evidence from data (RST.6-8.1), interpret a data display (RST.6-8.7), and write a claim supported by reasons and evidence (WHST.6-8.1b).