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Ordering Chance Events

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Ordering Chance Events

Use the probability scale from 0 (impossible) to 10 (certain). Some everyday events can have different estimates, so explain your thinking when asked.

Understanding the probability scale

1.At a kite festival, Anh uses a scale from 0 to 10 to describe chance. Choose the correct number for each statement: an event that cannot happen is at ___; an event that is guaranteed is at ___.
012345678910
  • 0, then 10
  • 5, then 0
  • 10, then 5
2.Match each chance word to the point or region that best fits on a 0–10 scale.
012345678910
  • Impossible
  • Unlikely
  • Equally likely
  • Likely
  • Certain
  • Near 2 or 3
  • Near 7 or 8
  • At 5
  • At 0
  • At 10

Estimating and ordering chance

3.For each event, write a number from 0 to 10 to show how likely you think it is. Use the same scale for all six events.
012345678910

a) Harper will fly a kite at the festival today, if the festival is open.

b) A kite will fly with no wind at all.

c) A fair coin tossed once will land heads-up.

d) The sun will rise tomorrow.

e) Zach will win a prize in a draw with 1 winning ticket among 5 tickets, if he holds 1 ticket.

f) Anh will roll a six on a standard six-sided die.

4.Choose two events from the list above. For each one, write its letter, your probability estimate and a reason for your estimate.

Thinking about different estimates

5.Two festival visitors estimate the chance of rain on Saturday differently: one chooses 3 and the other chooses 7. Give one sensible reason why their estimates might differ.
6.Invent a chance event connected to a kite festival. Place it somewhere from 0 to 10 and explain why that number fits.
012345678910
7.Select every word that can describe how likely an event is.
  • Unlikely
  • Noisy
  • Certain
  • Likely
  • Striped
  • Impossible

3 printable pages

  • Ordering Chance Events, page 1 of 3: Understanding the probability scale

    Page 1

  • Ordering Chance Events, page 2 of 3: Estimating and ordering chance

    Page 2

  • Ordering Chance Events, page 3 of 3: Thinking about different estimates

    Page 3

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